Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction

Everyone wants to be prepared for the future and some people even take help of predictions or forecasts to know what’s in store for them. Whether buying stocks, launching a new product, or simply planning weekend trips, everything somehow needs little bit of prediction in life. However, probability of actual occurrence of such events may vary person to person. Explaining the role of forecasting and how to master the skills in that, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock along with coauthor Dan Gardner, an excellent science journalist, has written this engaging book that talks about two-percent of forecasters who manage to outperform their peers.

Strangely, consumers of forecasts don’t really look out for the evidences of accuracy when the forecaster tells them something is about to happen. Nevertheless, some television networks or websites are able to score the accuracy of forecasts, whereas some don’t. Actually the accuracy of prediction depends on what the person is trying to predict, what are the current and future circumstances, and how far the thing is into the the future. For instance, there will be no sense in predicting economy from 10 years from now. But yearly economical predictions sound quite logical.

In order to find out the course of prediction and level of accuracy, Tetlock launched the Good Judgement Project that involved nearly 2,800 volunteer forecasters who worked on a series of prediction problems for several years. After the first year, the observations were made on certain incidents like whether Arafat was poisoned by polonium, whether WMDs were in Iraq and whether Osama bin Laden was in Abbottabad.

Tetlock observed different predictions given by different forecasters and tired to find out what amount of evidence, probability and logical thinking are used for the best predictions. Written in very engaging and accessible manner, the Superforecasting presents every concept with a good story-line. It even features few national surprises such as 9/11 and lack of WMDs in Iraq. The book also highlights why some forecasters missed out what seemed to be quite obvious in particular situations.

Overall, it is a book about critical thinking and compiled to challenge the readers to bring more rigour into their thought processes. With little effort and better understanding, readers can eventually learn to improve their ability to predict the future in business, finance, politics, international affairs or routine life. Both authors have made a valuable contribution to the world based on judgments and internet factoids.