Second Indian studies population

This study is divided into four chapters. The first chapter makes estimates of the trends in the vital rates of the population since independence, and establishes their levels. for the base year 1971 so that these can be used for popula tion projections later.

The second chapter, the most important, uses a component method of population projection in the style of Tomas Frejka, and makes estimates of the most probable long-term trends in the size and composition of India's population until such time as India's population grows to twice its size in the 1971 census, that is, until the time of Second India. There are three alternative projections-Low, Medium, and High-corresponding to assumptions of three. alternative courses of fertility and one course of mortality.
Among the three projections, the medium projections recommended for use elsewhere. As a matter of academic interest, the medium projections are carried out until 2081 to find out what would be the size and composition of India's population when it reaches a non-growing, stationary, state. The results of these calculations are also presented. The third chapter presents a rural-urban breakdown of the projected total population by age and sex, and estimates of the growth of labour force according to the 1961 and 1971 census criteria. The estimates are based on the medium projections of the total population, and are presented upto are 2011. The first three chapters were presented in a draft form in a seminar conducted at the International Institute for Population Studies, Bombay, sometime in September, 1974. Certain important questions were raised, whose implications have been analysed in Chapter 4.