OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2006-2015

This is the second occasion that the Agricultural Outlook has been prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The report benefits from the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations. This annual report analyses world commodity market trends and medium term prospects for the main agricultural products. It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes. In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including the agricultural giants of India, China, Brazil and Russia as well as Argentina, South Africa and several least developed countries.

The twelfth edition of the Agricultural Outlook provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on projections that extend to 2015 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of mainly temperate zone agricultural commodities. These projections are based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic conditions, population growth, national agricultural and trade policies as well as production technologies. In addition, the projections have been established under the assumption of average weather conditions. Collectively these assumptions help to determine a representative scenario of how agricultural markets could evolve over the coming decade.

World agricultural production is projected to continue to grow to 2015, but at a slower pace than in the last decade. Sustained economic growth in many OECD and non-OECD countries and moderate gains in population strengthen global demand for agricultural products. Expanding bio energy production is underpinning demand in particular for certain crop products that are used in ethanol and bio diesel production, Increased global demand for agricultural products provides the foundation for increasing production and agricultural trade over the projection period, particularly in developing countries. At the same time, competition is expected to intensify between traditional OECD and emerging agricultural exporters in international markets as production expands in many countries.