Growth and stability of the postwar economic

This studyof "Growth and Stability of the Postwar Econ omy" was begun in 1956 as an empirical examination of major factors affecting the growth and stability of the American economy since World War II. The author compares recent experience with that of the 1920's and examines the importance of structural changes in the econ omy and their influence on economic fluctuations. Although he con cludes that a prolonged and severe contraction like that of the early 1930's is unlikely, he finds no reason to suppose that serious con tractions of lesser magnitude may not recur.

During the progress of this research the author published several relatively self-contained portions of the analysis. He has drawn freely on these published materials in the present volume, although none of the papers was incorporated in its entirety or without revision. Similar use was made of portions of an earlier study done for the National Bureau of Economic Research. These prior publications, and the chap ters in which they figure, are as follows: The Korean War and United States Economic Activity, 1950-1952, Occasional Paper 49 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1955 (Chapter 5); "Federal Spending and the Stability of the Postwar Economy," Federal Ex penditure Policy for Economic Growth and Stability, Papers Sub mitted by Panelists Appearing before the Subcommittee on Fiscal Policy, Joint Economic Committee, 85 Cong. 1 sess., November 5, 1957 (Chapter 9); "The Contraction of 1953-1954," The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1958, copyright 1958 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College (Chapter 6); "An Interpreta tion of Price Movements Since the End of World War II," The Rela tionship of Prices to Economic Stability and Growth, Compendium of Papers Submitted by Panelists Appearing before the Joint Economic Committee, 85 Cong. 2 sess., March 31, 1958 (Chapters 4 and 14); "Postwar Cyclical Experience and Economic Stability," American Economic Review, May 1958 (Chapter 2).