Oil and gas

THE worldwide interest in energy shows a close correlation with the price Tof oil, and although the energy problems of developing countries should be conceived more broadly, energy crises are identified in the popular mind with oil crises. This is not surprising in view of developing countries' depen dence on oil. Apart from the People's Republic of China and India, few developing countries depend much on coal; and although hydroelectricity is generated more widely, it cannot match oil in versatility. Hence for the developing world, oil is a vital energy source, and will remain so for many years.

For how many years has been a matter of considerable debate among experts and laymen alike. Since the oil crisis of 1973, successive World Energy Conferences have devoted attention to the compilation of reliable data of world oil reserves and their comparison with consumption. The results have grown less alarming over the years: partly because the rise in oil prices made it economic to exploit new reserves, especially offshore; but mainly because slower economic growth and technological improvements slowed down the growth in the oil consumption of capitalist countries. Although the sense of panic has passed-and passed on to other threats, such as that of a world de pression-the mainstream expert opinion continues to hold that the exhaus tion of oil reserves is just a few decades away. Oil can last 35-40 years, whereas natural gas might last 55-60 years.

It is still possible that this picture will be significantly modified by new dis coveries. Some supergiant fields may be discovered offshore as well as in virgin inland basins, the two most prominent ones being Antarctica and the Talimou basin in West China. There is also the fascinating but hitherto unconfirmed theory of the inorganic origin of hydrocarbons: that carbon and water vapour may have formed-and may still be forming-hydrocarbon compounds in catalytic reactions in the presence of high temperatures and pressures deep inside the earth. Hence reserve estimates must be regarded as tentative, speculative and probably conservative. But for a society that seeks to survive far into the future, it would be better to err on the side of caution in estimating reserves of exhaustible resources.