U.S. and Soviet agriculture

Analysts of the U.S.-Soviet balance of power usually focus on 5 relative military strength-the number of tanks, planes, nu clear warheads and other items in the so-called strategic balance. But many other factors determine a country's over all power and influence. Among the most basic is a country's capacity to feed its people. By this measure the Soviet Union appears to be in deep trouble.

Massive spending has increased Soviet military strength in recent years, but the country has become weaker agriculturally. While the two superpowers now appear roughly equal in military strength, the advantage in agriculture has shifted dramatically toward the United States. The U.S. exportable food surplus is climbing, while Soviet dependence on food imports is growing.

This year the Soviet Union will try to import 46 million tons of grain, more than any country in history. Nearly one-fourth of all Soviet grain, feeding both people and livestock, will come from outside sources. Over one-half of this imported grain will come from the North American breadbasket, most of it from the United States.1

The Soviet economy is a planned economy, but these grain imports were not planned. They will fill part of the 68 million ton gap between the 1982 target of 238 million tons of grain and an actual harvest of some 170 million tons.2 In the past the Soviets blamed bad weather for their shortfalls, but this explanation is beginning to wear thin. Recently the Soviet leadership has acknowledged failures within the agricultural system itself.