Future of urbanization

Political thinking and policy making in India have long been influenced by the belief that India is a
rural country. The Census of 1981 and 1991 have helped in assailing these perceptions. In percentage terms
the 1991 Census indicated about 25% of the population to be urban. The figure is estimated to be about
30%, according to the Census of 2001. But these arithmetical averages ignore the reality of absolute
numbers. India's present urban population of about 300 million people is 12 times as much as at the
beginning of the century. In the next 20 years, the urban population will double itself. The statewide
variations are already significant and will be more so in the future.
While some states may still take refuge under percentages, for many others urbanisation is a strong
economic, political and spatial reality. Maharashtra and Gujarat will be nearly half urban whereas Tamil
Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra will be about 40% urban. Among the northern states Punjab, Haryana and
Western U.P. will have significant levels and concentrations of urban population. So will it be in the Eastern
states. The simple message is that urbanisation is not an aberration in space but a direct reflection and
result of the economic changes. In the country as a whole, as in most of the states, industry and services
are contributing an increasing proportion to the GDP as compared to agriculture. Good agricultural
performance and surpluses from the farm economy are also a major stimulant to urbanisation.
Unfortunately there has been very little attention or debate on the basic issues of urbanisation.
Public attention and report in the media have been sporadic, occasioned more by the irritants of daily urban
life and some visible manifestations such as congestion, pollution, water scarcity, sanitation etc. The
National Commission on Urbanisation set up under the Chairmanship of Charles Correa and its report of
1988 was the last occasion when any serious attention was paid to the subject.
Financial assistance for this study has come from the HDFC (Housing Development Finance
Corporation), the IDFC (Infrastructure Development Finance Company), and the IL&FS (Infrastructure
Leasing and Financial Services) and has made the present studv possible. The study is limited to the 5 states
of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. This is mainly because that these
states are the ones who are rapidly becoming urban. They are also characterised by their initiatives to
promote industrial and economic growth. They have been variously. labelled as progressive, dynamic or
reforming states. Within the limited resources of money and time, the CPR believed it would be more
effective to be selective and concentrate on these few states.