000			01386nam a2200193Ia 4500
999			_c70511 _d70511
005			20220209164958.0
008			200204s9999 xx 000 0 und d
020			_a9780833024954
082			_a305.8 TEL
100			_aTellis, Ashley J
245		0	_aAnticipating ethnic conflict
260			_aWashington _bRand _c1997
300			_a118p.
520			_aUnder what conditions are ethnic groups likely to take up violence against the state? When are they more likely to favor the peaceful pursuit of group aims? When are states likely to resort to violence and repression rather than negotiation? A better understanding and anticipation of such conflicts may improve the prospects for preventive action without force. Anticipating Ethnic Conflict provides a theoretical model of the social processes and dynamics that lead to ethnic and communitarian conflict and state breakdown. While it is designed as a handbook and a practical tool for intelligence analysts as they work to identify and plan for potential ethnic-conflict contingencies around the world, its discussion of the social-science underpinnings of the analytic model will make it an important read for anyone interested in analyzing the phenomenon of ethnic conflict.
650			_a"Ethnic relations-Forecasting-Handbooks,manuals"
700			_aSzayna, THomas S.
700			_aWinnefeld, James A.
942			_cB _2ddc